Conan O’Brien is not a victim.
The current Late Show circus is not because The Jay Leno Show failed. It is because The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien did.
Jay Leno did exactly what NBC expected. He delivered an audience of approximately 5 million viewers every night without the high production cost of scripted programming. The network can produce a full week of Leno for the $2 million to $3 million price of a single hour of drama. It may be bad television but it is good business.
No, Leno was never a prime time power house. Yes, CBS and ABC silently cheered when NBC announced that they were making the change. But to be clear, he was never expected to win the time slot. A third place finish was still a financial success. NBC knew exactly how this would impact their affiliates. They didn’t care. It was business.
Conan was given late night’s golden chair. The premiere episode of The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien delivered a 7.1 rating/17 share. That was the best performing Monday installment of The Tonight Show in four years. He had an audience and didn’t keep them. Instead, he slowly delivered them to David Letterman’s Late Show until Letterman assumed the #1 spot for the first time in June.
Conan has issued a statement saying he believed he would have been #1 if he'd been given the time and a solid prime lead in to build an audience. NBC didn’t give Southland, a gritty crime drama, seven episodes to build an audience. O’Brien had seven months. Why does he feel entitled to more than that? Johnny Carson didn’t have a strong prime time schedule to spoon feed him an audience. He was in that chair during some of NBC’s darkest prime line ups and yet remained at the top of the ratings charts. If O’Brien wanted to be among the greats he needed to capture the opportunity and excel.
Conan O’Brien needs to admit that while Leno did what was expected he didn’t. NBC was moving backward with him at the helm of The Tonight Show.
Conan O’Brien has talent. I have no doubt that if he walks away from NBC he won’t be off the air for long. He’ll find a time slot and network that suits his comedic genius. (Fox are you listening?)
If you are going to feel sorry for anyone, send your heart out to Jay Leno. Now he needs to return to his previous glory. That’s not nearly as easy as producing a daily prime time show that no one really needs to watch to succeed.
